What does a surf forecast actually show?
Most surf forecasts break the day into a few lines of data. For Morocco, four of them decide whether you’ll get good waves:
- Swell height: how big the open-ocean swell is, usually in metres.
- Swell period: the time between waves, in seconds.
- Swell direction: where the swell comes from, shown in degrees or compass points.
- Wind and tide: what happens to the swell when it reaches the coast.
The mistake most people make is reading just one number, usually height. A 2-metre swell at 7 seconds and a 1.2-metre swell at 14 seconds are completely different days, and the smaller one is often better.
Why is swell period so important?
Period tells you how much energy the swell carries and how far it has travelled. Long-period swells come from distant storms in the North Atlantic. They arrive organised, in clean sets, and they wrap around headlands into point breaks.
| Period | What it usually means | What to expect in Morocco |
|---|---|---|
| Under 8 s | Local windswell | Choppy, weak, close-together waves |
| 9–11 s | Mid-period swell | Rideable, softer, good for learning |
| 12–15 s | Groundswell | Clean lines, points start working properly |
| 16 s and up | Long-range groundswell | Powerful sets, long waits, bigger than it looks |
As a rough rule, a longer period makes the waves break bigger than the height figure alone suggests.
Which swell direction works in Morocco?
Morocco’s Atlantic coast mostly surfs on north-west swell, which is most consistent from September to April. December to February usually brings the biggest and most frequent swells. May to August is smaller and better suited to learning.
Direction decides which spots light up. In Imsouane, the headland splits the swell in two:
- Magic Bay, inside the bay, is a long right-hand point break of roughly 800 metres that peels over sand. The swell has to wrap around the headland to reach it, so it usually breaks smaller and softer than the forecast number.
- Cathedral Point, on the exposed side, faces the swell more directly. It is more powerful and breaks over rock.
So a forecast that looks too big for Magic Bay may be perfect there, while Cathedral is out of reach for most people.
How does wind change the waves?
Wind shapes the surface. Offshore wind blows from the land out to sea and holds waves up, keeping them smooth. Onshore wind blows from the sea and crumbles them. Cross-shore sits in between.
On this coast, the pattern is fairly reliable: mornings are usually cleanest, and onshore wind tends to build after midday. When you read a forecast, check the wind strength hour by hour, not just the daily summary. A good swell with strong onshore wind from late morning means an early session or nothing.
Sheltered spots like a bay tucked behind a headland can stay surfable when exposed breaks are blown out. That is one reason point breaks are so valuable on windy days.
Does the tide matter?
Yes. The tide changes the water depth over the sand or rock, and that changes how the wave breaks. Too little water and a wave can close out or get shallow; too much and it can go soft and slow.
The tidal range along Morocco’s Atlantic coast can be a few metres at spring tides, so the same spot can look very different at 8am and at 2pm. Every break has its own preferred tide, and it can shift with sandbanks and swell size. Local knowledge is the fastest way to learn it: note the tide time whenever you have a good session.
Worked examples: reading real forecast lines
Here is how to put the numbers together for Imsouane. These are example forecasts, not predictions.
| Forecast | Wind | Likely Magic Bay | Likely Cathedral Point |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.0 m, 13 s, NW | Light morning, onshore after midday | Clean, fun, beginner-friendly in the morning | Good size, suits confident surfers |
| 2.5 m, 15 s, NW | Light | Long, well-shaped rides; busier line-up | Powerful and heavy; experienced surfers only |
| 1.5 m, 7 s, W | Strong onshore all day | Small and messy | Choppy, disorganised |
| 0.6 m, 10 s, NW | Light | Small, gentle, ideal for first lessons | Probably too small to be worth it |
Example 1 is a classic autumn morning: modest height, good period, clean wind. Surf early before the wind turns.
Example 2 is a winter groundswell. The long period means sets will be much bigger than the average suggests. Magic Bay wraps and tames it; Cathedral does not.
Example 3 shows why height alone misleads. There is plenty of swell, but a short period and onshore wind make it poor almost everywhere.
Example 4 looks flat on paper, but a gentle, clean day like this is often the best kind for a beginner.
How should I check the forecast before a session?
- Start with period and direction, then height.
- Check the hourly wind and find the calm window, usually the morning.
- Look at the tide times for that window.
- Choose the spot that matches your level, not the biggest one.
- Go and look at the water before paddling out.
A forecast tells you what’s likely. The sea tells you what’s actually happening.
Learn it in the water
The quickest way to read forecasts well is to compare the numbers with what you see at the beach. Our coaches go through the conditions with you in every session of our surf lessons, and the Surf Development Week in our surf weeks includes dedicated sessions on tides, theory and reading the line-up. If you’re bringing your own experience but not your own gear, see our rental page, and for flat or windy afternoons, have a look at our activities.